INSIDE THE NUMBERS: The Cardinal Chronicle

There may be a misperception forming around Iván Herrera and his value as the #STLCards DH. The eye test says one thing, but some of the underlying numbers say something else. Herrera’s slash line of .244/.370/.378 with a .748 OPS tells a pretty clear story. He is still getting on base at an excellent rate. His .370 on-base percentage is well above the Major League average, and that is not a small thing. That reflects patience, strike-zone judgment and an ability to avoid giving away plate appearances. But the power side of the profile has not matched the on-base ability. His .244 batting average is basically around league average, but the .378 slugging percentage is below where you would like it to be, especially for a bat the Cardinals are trying to keep in the lineup. That is where the hard-hit data becomes important. Herrera’s hard-hit rate is down significantly from last season, dropping from 47.7% to 38.9%.

The MLB average is around 39%. So while the overall OPS still looks respectable because the on-base percentage is carrying it, the quality of contact has not been the same. That does not mean Herrera cannot hit. It does not mean he is not valuable. It does not mean you ignore the on-base skill. But it does mean the offensive profile is more complicated than simply saying, “He gets on base, so keep the bat in there.” If the impact contact is down, the slugging is below average and the power production is limited, then the Cardinals have to be honest about what kind of hitter he is right now. Sometimes it takes the game, and fans, a little time to catch up to what we are seeing in real time. Herrera still has real offensive value. But the numbers suggest the bat may not be doing quite as much damage as the perception suggests among the fans who still see the 2025 version of Herrera at the plate.